TL:DR- Nintendo knows they need a major new AAA release to launch with any new console, Zelda just had TotK release and likely has many years to go before its next entry, and their other heaviest hit Mario, has been sitting in wait for many years and is primed to fill that role this time around.
One of the more jarring things about the switch’s library is that Mario Odyssey came out in 2017 and sold almost 30 million copies, yet we have not only not gotten another 3D Mario game in the last 7 years, but that we still haven’t **even gotten an announcement for one yet**.
One can assume that Nintendo has learned at this point that launch titles are incredibly important to the success of their consoles. This is why they felt they could get away with launching the Switch just 4 years into the Wii U’s lifecycle, hoping the Breath of the Wild port would help motivate sales. And it worked, in fact it worked so phenomenally well that there were Switch shortages and the BotW literally outsold its own console at launch.
[https://www.theverge.com/2017/4/13/15296874/nintendo-switch-zelda-sales-numbers-us](https://www.theverge.com/2017/4/13/15296874/nintendo-switch-zelda-sales-numbers-us)
I believe that Nintendo has learned that any new console **must** launch with a brand new, mass-market AAA game, or else the console has high odds of a lukewarm release and eventual failure.
Looking at the last several console releases and their biggest launch titles, we see this pattern holds up really well-
Switch- BoTW launch title, **success**
Wii U- Wind Waker **remake** launch title, **flop**
Nintendo 3DS- Street Fighter 4 3D, **initial flop,** only saved by an unprecedented 32% price cut less than 6 months into its lifecycle
Wii- Twilight princess launch title, **success**
Gamecube- Luigi’s Mansion launch title, **flop**
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Therefore, I believe that Nintendo has noticed this pattern, and has been sitting on the next 3D Mario game in the hopes of making it a Switch 2 launch title.
Counter arguments I can foresee-
\- I conveniently left out the N64 in the console release history because it launched with Mario 64 and is still generally considered to have underperformed, at least relative to its new competition in the playstation. But maybe Nintendo still remembers this and doesn’t trust that a 3D mario game can carry a new launch. I highly, highly doubt this one though, considering the huge sales figures of Odyssey.
\- Development times have been increasing across the board for videogame development, and its possible that it really has just taken Nintendo a long time to make Mario Odyssey 2/whatever next 3D mario, meaning it’ll come out later in the Switch 2’s lifecycle simply because its not done yet. Possible. Miyamoto has probably also been a little pre-occupied with the movies, theme parks, etc. and this may have contributed to slower development. 7 years without an announcement is getting a little excessive though.
\- Metroid Prime 4 is Nintendo’s planned launch title- I don’t believe this one bit. Metroid Dread sold 3 million units, while Mario Odyssey sold nearly 30. Nintendo knows that Metroid is way too small to carry the launch for a new console.
by original_og_gangster