I explain research looking into the question of whether the catch rate of Premier balls increases with every throw, and analyze the practical effects of this bonus.
The Silph Road article: https://web.archive.org/web/20230325083958/https://thesilphroad.com/science/raid-bosses-easier-catch-later-encounter
@bmenrigh_pogo tweets:
– Curveballs: https://x.com/bmenrigh_pogo/status/1685040762629881856
– Premier ball boost: https://x.com/bmenrigh_pogo/status/1685097751007440896
– Premier ball boost minor correction: https://x.com/bmenrigh_pogo/status/1685099901754261505
– Comparison with The Silph Road analysis: https://x.com/bmenrigh_pogo/status/1685475383502929920
Malte’s site (currently not functional): https://rocket.malte.im
46 Comments
What about the platnium metal +4 catch bonus?
I wouldn’t say throwing away balls for regular encounters has no effect, it actually looks like it may go down.
Great video! I really like these where you actually calculate the exact chance. I knew this trick existed but there was literally no evidence and it always could have beed just luck
I still lost my hundo Groudon.
That was an enjoyable and informatice watch. I thought it was going to segue into research done for Galarian Birds though
Add me for Raids 912547173529
I've caught 4 Galarian birds with this method so I thought it must've had at least SOME truth to it. Interesting! Guess I just got lucky.
"…any magic incantation…" 😂🤣 This channel is gold! This topic was totally new to me. Thanks so much!!
I've found that a regular throw right after an excellent throw is often more effective than the excellent throw itself
K so why am I still failing the goddamn legends from raids it’s not fair
Best chanel out
Nice video. I have a question, I´ve heard that making an excellent throw with the 1° ball (in legendary raids at least) increases your chances to catch in the final ball. Is that true?
The dedication! Hope you make a video on how to get excellent throw on galarian birds too. Since shinies just got released, I am sure people will start looking for an excellent throw guide.
The increased catch rate of Premier Balls is consistent with my experience when catching Shadow Pokémon from Rocket teams. However, I wonder if the boost correlates with effective throws (even if the catch fails) or all throws (including those where the ball doesn’t hit the target and is wasted). Either way, the best practice would be to use the circle lock technique and avoid wasting any available balls.
Interesting. I always thought this was the case but never knew there was research into it. I am curious, though. Does it matter if the ball hits the pokemon? If you miss a throw, does your catch chance still increase on the next ball?
i did this with a zapdos and got it. but the next time i tried no luck
this channel is going to blow. Investing at 3.73k subs I expect to see 10k in 2 months and 50k by halfway through 2025
This is fantastic. Thanking the algorithm for suggesting this
I knew it!!! Thanks 🙏
Always wondered why that last ball catch even if I flubbed an excellent and got a great throw felt like odds were boosted.
Why the sad song at the end of the video?
I appreciate that you cite your sources and link to them!
This is quite useful to know tbh, great video!
I plug a GameBoy into my phone and hold down + B, works half the time all the time :p
Its funny how TheKruseShip started this whole trend of trying/debunking the ball trick myth
This channel is soooooooo good. The production quality is high, and the math is easy to follow. Why don't you have 100x the subs and views??
Do excellents or greats increase catch rate? Or just hitting the curve ball in general? I’m new to the game sorry if this is a dumb question
Anecdotally, during Niantics adjustments of 2024 it seems they increased slightly the catch rate of the first one or two throws. I’ve not come across similar statistical analysis though, or spent the time tracking it myself. Has anyone else had similar observances?
Amazing video! Very well researched, thanks for providing this information 😀
Tldr: im confused and just want to catch shiny pocket monster birds 😢
Well for Galarian Bird…. kinda not, i just throw 10 Ultra, get excellent throw, shake once…. broke and ran away
Thanks for the analysis. I was hesitant to waste Pokeballs on the rumor.
That internet archive is great when a site goes down. I had lost a character build for a diablo-style game until I found it there.
Omg finally somebody answered this question ever since i saw that video of the waste your balls trick to increase your catch rate ive been trying to find someone to answer this question but all the other sources where old and outdated, thanks for making this, and your excellent catching videos are the best simce it has helped me improve my throwing skills.❤
The first time I tried this it worked !! It hasn't worked since.
what is the p value?
Ok oddly enough it has happened to me on moltres. I caught it with 1 actual ball hit. I did miss 4 times tho on accident because it kept moving. But the 1 ball that hit it caught it. I have 2 moltres now.
the man makes a python for throwing balls, you know excel? hahaha amazing video man
Awesome thanks!!!!
Admittedly I may be a bit biased, but excellent video! I especially appreciate the mention of confirmation bias at the start. So many misconceptions in this game (and in life) can be traced back to confirmation bias.
Spoofers wait 2 hours before catching pokemon they teleport to to remove cooldown so if you want to wait 2 hours on a legendary bird to try and increase your catch rate that be better than wasting balls the ball wasting increases the time you are on the catch screen which is what would be doing it not wasting the balls themselves.
Irrelevant to me I’ve still never even encountered one of the birds. In fact today I used the incense for 2 hours straight and no bird
title alright, cover page fraud, good content but useless though
Day 1 player and this was one of the few things about the game i didn't know. Thanks for the well presented info
wtf you didn't debunk anything lmao such a long video without actual research on encounters with the gbirds you go to a conclusion based on premier ball data not with regular balls it worked for a while pretty sure it got nerfed because yknow anything that helps players gets tweaked
to debunk this you would have to run an experiment where you throw away balls on a gbird and the control where you do a regular catch attempt and compare results over a span of at least 10 encounters of similar level gbirds this video is literally useless although its obvious this got nerfed I did the trick and it worked so whatever this is a moot point because its a trick that doesn't exist but it did work for a while
What I have seen is quite the opposite. If you miss and throw away balls, you have a lower chance than if you are consistently hitting it with excellent throws.