Did 50 Tornadus raids already and no shiny. Is this happening with you guys as well or am I being just really unlucky?
by pwcarneiro
9 Comments
Trevtheking
Unfortunately sometimes you just get really unlucky. I one time went 111 legendary/mythical raids in a row without a shiny.
UltimateDailga12
RNG at its finest, for my kantonian Articuno it took me 90 encounters to get the shiny
Asnaldo
Yeah, it seems Niantic is targetting you, I know this because of logic.
And they know where you live OP (obviously, because the game is gps based), take care.
ziggy48560
That’s RNG for you
I’ve got 3/13 shiny Tornadus and 0/48 shiny Tapu Koko
BCHiker7
We get these posts all the time. After 50 encounters 7.7% of players will have no shiny. Congratulations, you are the 1 in 13 who received no shiny in 50 tries. The sad fact is that your chances have not improved in the slightest. Your next raid will still be 1 in 20.
Individual-Draft-963
I’ve gone 100+ legendary raids in a row without getting a shiny. Probability and luck are sometimes just like that.
If you want to know the probability of getting a shiny legendary at 1/20 odds (as it usually is), you can do 1-(.95^x) where x is the number of raids. You only have a 65% chance to get it in 20 raids, and a 92% to get it in 50 raids like you have now. That seems high, but that means that 8/100 people will not get the shiny in 50 raids, which is fairly likely to occur.
Just unlucky! There’s a roughly 1/13 chance to reach 50 encounters without a shiny considering 5* shiny odds. I’m at a cumulative 116 encounters (since their shiny debuts) between Zacian and Zamazenta without any shinies to show for it. I’m also at 338 Scatterbug encounters post-shiny debut without a shiny, as well. On the flipside, I have shiny Uxie, Mesprit, and Azelf at 5, 5, and 6 encounters, respectively, so things tend to average out overall.
Just be glad we aren’t hunting on older mainline pokemon titles! Going 2x odds or higher with the 1/8192 rates is always a bit dreadful, lol. Hopefully your Tornadus shines soon!
PuzzleheadedClass733
Just do 1000 raids and youll start seeing a rate thats more in line with 1 in 20. Congrats on discovering statistics
9 Comments
Unfortunately sometimes you just get really unlucky. I one time went 111 legendary/mythical raids in a row without a shiny.
RNG at its finest, for my kantonian Articuno it took me 90 encounters to get the shiny
Yeah, it seems Niantic is targetting you, I know this because of logic.
And they know where you live OP (obviously, because the game is gps based), take care.
That’s RNG for you
I’ve got 3/13 shiny Tornadus and 0/48 shiny Tapu Koko
We get these posts all the time. After 50 encounters 7.7% of players will have no shiny. Congratulations, you are the 1 in 13 who received no shiny in 50 tries. The sad fact is that your chances have not improved in the slightest. Your next raid will still be 1 in 20.
I’ve gone 100+ legendary raids in a row without getting a shiny. Probability and luck are sometimes just like that.
If you want to know the probability of getting a shiny legendary at 1/20 odds (as it usually is), you can do 1-(.95^x) where x is the number of raids. You only have a 65% chance to get it in 20 raids, and a 92% to get it in 50 raids like you have now. That seems high, but that means that 8/100 people will not get the shiny in 50 raids, which is fairly likely to occur.
https://preview.redd.it/f802fm87x7gg1.jpeg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=20370bafdcfdeb7c7b3d4ccd2ba657f4f10ff2a4
I’m at 70 deoxys, it’s just bad luck
Just unlucky! There’s a roughly 1/13 chance to reach 50 encounters without a shiny considering 5* shiny odds. I’m at a cumulative 116 encounters (since their shiny debuts) between Zacian and Zamazenta without any shinies to show for it. I’m also at 338 Scatterbug encounters post-shiny debut without a shiny, as well. On the flipside, I have shiny Uxie, Mesprit, and Azelf at 5, 5, and 6 encounters, respectively, so things tend to average out overall.
Just be glad we aren’t hunting on older mainline pokemon titles! Going 2x odds or higher with the 1/8192 rates is always a bit dreadful, lol. Hopefully your Tornadus shines soon!
Just do 1000 raids and youll start seeing a rate thats more in line with 1 in 20. Congrats on discovering statistics