**TL; DR:**
Unless Nintendo has some serious plans hidden away (i.e. whole new console for 2024), there is no way the Switch is dead pre-2030. If Nintendo comes out with either Switch Lite 2.0 and/or Switch Pro circa 2024-2026, then it’s very much alive until at least 2026-2028.
Of course, after that, there will still be millions of core Switch fans that don’t move to the new console until it’s cheaper/better, if at all; thus, the Switch will remain fairly alive until at least 2027, if not 2035. Years after its end, as is the case with most major consoles.
Following the logic of YouTubers, the PS4 must be ‘dead’ now, since it no longer has new major games, and the PS5 is going strong. Yet, the PS4 is still actively supported by Sony, and has millions of core users. The PS4 won’t be dead until at least 2030 (17 years). Just like the PSP, Xbox 360, and others (16–17 years).
Consoles seem to die about half-way into the life of the next generation. In other words, about 15 years (where a whole generation is akin to a whole generation of users: 25 years). This makes perfect sense.
Thus, **the Switch will last, overall, at least 15 years (2017-2032)**.
**Let’s talk about it.**
So, there has been a lot of talk over the last few months, that the Switch is coming to an end (at least, somewhat officially). The problem is as follows:
* Even if Nintendo has major Switch Pro plans for 2024-2025, the Switch OLED is still pretty new and selling fairly well.
* They are still pumping out lots of digital content, and new physical games are going to be pumped out into 2024, at least.
* There is unspeakable support for the Switch overall, considering the strong fanbase across the Internet, and the unit sales (according to this [Wiki page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_game_consoles), reporting the sales at around 125 million as of mid-2023, making it one of the best-selling consoles of all time), driven by its hybrid nature, lack of major competition, and Switch-only titles.
Yes, most of these unit sales are from 2017-2018 with the original Switch, as everybody rushed on it. But, it’s still selling about as good as any other single console right now, if you compare all the numbers. (Note that the Wiki link above also shows that every other niche, hybrid, and/or handheld console is failing horribly, or else doesn’t even exist. There are no realistic alternatives to the Switch. The numbers speak for themselves. Maybe the PlayStation Q takes off, but I don’t think it’ll reach Switch levels at all, for a few reasons — and it won’t hurt Switch sales too much.)
Further, if Nintendo merely updates the Switch family in some way, even as early as late-2024, then there won’t be much — if any — shift away from the Switch as such until at least 2026, with support remaining until at least 2030. It’s illogical for them to bring out a Switch Pro for just 1–2 years; and it’s illogical for them to radically shift away from the Switch family of consoles too early!
Following this logic, the Switch family (v1 through Pro) must remain not only official, but very much alive until at least 2026. This is in keeping with the life span of such a dominant, wide-ranging (either at the level of hardware or software) consoles, as the Game Boy, PS2, and Wii. After that, it shall remain semi-supported and semi-popular until at least 2030.
The fact that Tears of the Kingdom is the last big Zelda game on the system does not mean it’s coming to an end. Yet, I have heard this a few times from big YouTubers and such over the last few weeks.
Let’s have a look at the facts.
**Hardware**
On the unit/model front, we know that it’s likely that a Pro model comes along by 2024 and remains strong until at least 2026. We know this because that’s how it has been for almost every major console (from all companies) since the late-1990s.
The Switch is, of course, both handheld and home, which is a bit messy — but it’s primarily a home console (if we look at the stats on sales and how most people play with it).
However, it’s possible that we don’t get the Switch Pro until 2025 or so, only furthering the life span (unless there is a whole cultural move away from the Switch, which seems unlikely).
To make a long story short, we typically see a new model/upgrade to a system every 2 years, for a total of 3–4 upgrades. After that, the system itself is slowly phased out for 2–6 years, until the new system comes out (i.e. PS4 > PS5), giving us a total life of around 8–14 years. Obviously, this depends on many factors, including (a) company direction; (b) tech issues/exact nature of the system; and (c) how long you can keep the current system dominant/strong for. After that, you will have a few extra years of support and/or popularity, until it’s fully dead after around 12–18 years.
Even if the new Switch Pro only sells 20 million units, if you couple that with the 15 million OLED sales (as of 2023), then that’s still close to the PS5 sales, and that’s only 30% of the entire Switch family/models!
We are not only not near the end of the Switch, we’re really only about 50% of the way through, I believe.
**Software**
So, let’s look into this idea that *every Nintendo console ends with a big Zelda game*.
* The NES ended with Zelda II in 1987, yet the SNES did not come out until 1990 (and the NES still saw support and popularity for a few years, more so outside of Japan and America, as everywhere else got it much later). Let’s just call it 4 years, then. However, we saw a few popular titles for the NES, post-1990, including Mega Man 6, Pac-Man, Jurassic Park, Alien 3, Bomberman II, Batman Returns, Mega Man 5, Contra Force, Panic Restaurant, Yoshi, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles III, The Addams Family, Mega Man 4, Mega Man 3, Dr. Mario, Castlevania III, and Final Fantasy.
* The SNES ended with A Link to the Past in 1991, yet the N64 did not come out until 1996 (and the SNES still saw support and popularity for a few years, more so outside of Japan and America, as everywhere else got it much later). Let’s just call it 6 years, then. However, we saw a few popular titles for the SNES, post-1996, including Frogger, Kirby’s Dream Land 3, Madden NFL 98, Space Invaders, Harvest Moon, Donkey Kong Country 3, SimCity 2000, Ms. Pac-Man, and Super Mario RPG.
* The N64 ended with Majora’s Mask in 2000, and the GameCube did come out in 2001 (more so, 2002 world-wide). Of course, the N64 still remained popular into the 2000s, and saw some popular titles between 2000 and 2002 (after the last Zelda game), including Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater 2 and 3, Dr. Mario 64, Madden NFL 2002, Pokémon Stadium 2, Conker’s Bad Fur Day, Paper Mario, Banjo-Tooie, Spider-Man, Batman Beyond, Star Wars Episode I, and Mega Man 64.
* The GameCube ended with Twilight Princess in 2006, and the Wii came out in 2006. Well, this was right on the money. No major titles came out post-Princess. This was a clear shift to kill the GameCube and replace it with the Wii, a whole new direction (likely because the GameCube was failing, and they had no hope to directly compete with the PS2/Xbox). And, it was one of the last games for the GameCube.
* The Wii ended with Skyward Sword in 2011, and the Wii U came out in 2012 (but, the world did not get it until 2013 or so). However, the Wii got some major titles or ports post-2011, including Mario Party 9, LEGO Batman 2, The Amazing Spider-Man, LEGO: The Lord of the Rings. And, it remained popular beyond this point, of course.
* The Wii U ended in 2017 with Breath of the Wild, and the Switch came out in 2017 with the same title. However, the Wii U is also still fairly popular (and is a decent home version of the Switch for many core titles, such as Zelda), though no major games came out after Breath of the Wild! Some people still play the Wii U instead of the Switch as of 2023; however, the store was just closed in 2023, so it’s really ending now, after 11 years.
* The Switch has just seen Tears of the Kingdom this year (2023), with the Switch having arrived with Breath of the Wild in 2017. Well, if the home consoles are any indication, we at least have a few years left before the Switch is fully dead: more likely that we see at least 5 cool games over 2023 and 2024, and a few years of semi-support after that as millions keep playing the games that already exist.
Of course, it’s a bit more confusing than this, given all the handhelds. And, it’s possible that Nintendo plans on really sticking with the Switch, in which case, they may be planning on a third Zelda game for it, or else a new massive Mario game. That will boost its energy again, more so, if coupled with a Pro model circa 2024-2025.
All of this leads me to believe that the Switch will not die until at least 2030 (and the final support won’t end until at least 2035), with or without another Zelda game! However, something will be required: either a Switch Pro, a Switch Lite 2.0, and/or a new massive game outside of Zelda. And, I’m 90% certain that at least one of these is coming by 2025. Remember: worst case for the Switch is that they bring out a whole new console by 2024-2025, and slowly phase out the Switch. This still won’t truly kill the Switch until at least 2030. I wouldn’t call that ‘soon’, as some people are! That’s still many years left. (I do think it’s a great time to buy the OLED, however — and it does seem that 90% of the library is complete now. Unless you really want to wait to see what they have planned for 2024-2025.)
Remember, too: Nintendo has stated that it won’t be gifting us new hardware until at least *mid-2024*; instead, it’s focusing on new games and ports as the Switch grows out. Seems logical to me, and pretty good news for the fans.
Tears of the Kingdom is not the end, but more like mid-journey for the Switch family, *with or without a new console* \– so, just enjoy the ride. 🙂
by TheRetroWorkshop
16 Comments
When I finished totk, I was really satisfied and I thought (for a very short time) that I was done with the switch and no more games (of my interest) would come to it.
But then I remembered I still have Rain Code, Ghost Trick, Baiten Kaitos, Sea of Stars, Eiyuden Chronicles, Fate Remnant, Silksong and a bunch of indie games to look forward to. Maybe there won’t be any major titles (that we know of so far) in the horizon, but the Switch will probably still enjoy support from smaller companies for a while, and I’m all for that.
I think 2030 is a bit of a stretch, but I don’t think the end is near any time soon.
I don’t have anything to comment about the Switch, but did anyone actually use a PS2 Slim standing like that?
You know, PS and Xbox have left switch behind with a huge gap in terms of hardware advancement, yet I never for a moment thought about look into them. That’s how switch works, it’s fun, period. In fact I never want to play a “heavy” game if it takes 20 seconds to load.
The last Wii game was released 2020. Support might continue for a while, but a new generation will come out before then.
IMO Nintendo is not directly comparable to other console makers and a comparison to the lifecycles of say the PS4 and PS5 just don’t really apply. They’ve no reason to adhere to anyone else’s notion of what a console “generation” is and have existed outside of those release cycles for a while. They know they aren’t playing the same game as MS and Sony.
I think we’re far too late in the game to get a meaningful refresh now anyway, given how far behind the curve the switch tech is now – if anything, the OLED was that refresh. And again – mid-gen refresh is a Sony and MS thing, which Nintendo has no obligation to do the same.
I can only assume (hope?) that what’s coming down the pipeline is a full Switch 2 that’s still in the Switch family and keeps compatibility while bringing the hardware up to date. I’d buy that easily. A mid gen refresh now though? Hard skip. That ship sailed.
whatever this “new hardware” Nintendo ends up gifting us I just hope it supports 1080P 30FPS in handheld with a option to dial it up to 60FPS in settings, 4K in docked mode, and finally change the joy-con design to make it more ergonomic.
By 2030, Switch update would probably stabilize my life by then.
Why stop at 2035? You’re obviously not a true Nintendo™ (pbuh) fan. 2050 I say!
>Maybe the PlayStation Q takes off, but I don’t think it’ll reach Switch levels at all
This new Q device is just a handheld accessory to the PS5 that only streams games over WiFi. We’re not talking about a new PSP here. I don’t think it even deserves to be compared to the Switch.
That said, the performance gap between Nintendo and the other two consoles is inarguably wide. The main reason people are clamoring for the next system is so that even current games can be played in a decent state. Tears of the Kingdom is a technical marvel and upcoming high-quality indies (is there a term for this? AA games, maybe?) such as Silksong, presumably, don’t need the horsepower. First-party titles, indies, and older games remastered continue to be the system’s bread and butter.
Everything else though? Midnight Suns for Switch was cancelled. Hogwarts Legacy being pushed back repeatedly doesn’t inspire confidence. The Witcher III is held up as a miracle port, but how much downgrading was needed to get it there? Because this is where the bar lies. Imagine Elden Ring or Final Fantasy VII Remake looking like that. The best that can be expected of any current-gen port is for enough corners to be cut to get it running at 30fps with blurry graphics. We don’t need a brand new system, but a stronger Switch would be nice.
First of all, I think you are stating a lot of conjecture as if it’s factual. You are basing your statements on the facts and trying to use logic to state what might happen which is fine but making it sound like you know exactly what’s going to happen which isn’t true.
Secondly, there’s not definitively a bunch of support upcoming for the Switch as far as games. There’s MK1 and Pikmin 4 and then we don’t know a whole heck of a lot. I hope that will change soon and that we’ll get some kind of direct or announcement/shadow drop etc of some more games soon but there isn’t a whole heck of a lot on the horizon right now. That may be due to secrecy, lack of upcoming games, an upcoming new system… right now we just don’t know. And if they do release Switch 2 there’s no guarantee that games will be released cross platform.
Thirdly, if there aren’t any new games but people are still playing what’s already been released on the Switch, I doubt most people would consider that as the system still being alive.
the only think that guarantees support for the switch is its own success
nintendo basically lets its consoles dies at year 4-5 when they are not succesful
A lot of pure speculation in this post.
I don’t think *anyone* serious is suggesting that the Nintendo Switch is dead. The sales numbers for Tears of the Kingdom make it abundantly clear that the Nintendo Switch is doing just fine… for now.
At the same time, it’s hard to ignore the emptiness we see looking ahead. As far as exclusives coming up, we’ve got Everybody 1-2 Switch this month, Pikmin 4 next month, Baten Kaitos I & II Remaster at some point mid this year, and presumably Metroid Prime 4 and Detective Pikachu 2 at some nebulous point in the future. Add in some DLC for existing games, and that is all Nintendo has announced right now.
Is this all Nintendo has planned for the Nintendo Switch? I highly, highly doubt it. Surely they’ll either put out a Nintendo Direct in the coming months or continue to trickle announcements on YouTube and Twitter like they did for Everybody 1-2 Switch… but it’s hard not to feel like we’re looking at things winding down at this point.
To keep their current momentum going, they would have to announce *multiple* new games, including some major new releases. And while surely they have *something* planned (they will undoubtedly need a new holiday release and their requisite yearly Pokemon game, at the very least), I am highly skeptical that we see the sort of slate of announcements that would be needed to fill the emptiness that currently resides past July 2023. To do so would require announcements that would make for the greatest Nintendo Direct of all-time, or the equivalent of that in individual announcements. And while I would love to think that’s in the works, I think that expecting as much is just begging for disappointment.
A lot of industry analysts are speculating (and that’s really all we can do) that the lull in the upcoming release schedule is because Nintendo has shifted development to whatever the next game platform is, and we haven’t heard much about it because Nintendo doesn’t want to detract from Nintendo Switch sales.
Here’s the thing – we can all safely assume that there *is* a new game console in the works, but we can’t really know just what form it will take, or when it will be released, because Nintendo consistently makes strange and unexpected choices. Will it be a “Switch 2” that’s just like the Switch, but more powerful? Or will it be an entirely different hardware concept? Will it be backwards-compatible with the Switch?
Because we don’t know the answers to these questions, we can’t know how long to expect the Nintendo Switch to continue to coexist with whatever this new hardware is. We’re also in a strange situation where Nintendo Switch sales are declining because they’re pretty much reached market saturation, which is an unusual position for a game platform to be in.
Will the Nintendo Switch swiftly be supplanted by a successor to be announced any day now? Will it linger for a few years? Will it continue to coexist with the new hardware as a different “pillar” like Nintendo has prior to the Switch? Any of these paths is theoretically *possible*, but it’s anyone’s guess how *probably* any of them are.
“Dead” is not really a defined term. We got a second hand NES from someone who got an SNES and I played that pretty regularly through the 90s even after getting an N64 and Gamecube. But it was a dead console.
The Wii had a longer life partially due to the huge sales base and also due to the terrible performance of the WiiU. I could see the same happening for the Switch. The longer Nintendo waits for a replacement, the better the next gen console sales will be.
But I really can’t see them pumping out any more major first party games for the Switch. TotK is likely the last big title (unless you count Pikmin 4). My guess is the next console will have a new Mario as a launch title. Probably have one or two launch games from a beloved franchise like Metroid, Starfox, Donky Kong, Fire Emblem, Mario Kart, Smash, Xenoblade, Luigi’s Mansion, Animal Crossing, or Pokemon. I would say at least 8 of those franchise would get a new game on the next console. Probably a new Zelda game late in year 2 or year 3. The key to a successful next decade for Nintendo will be getting people to put down the Switch adopt the next console. The only way to do that is to have a compelling upgrade in hardware and a strong lineup of games.
Nintendo won’t kill off the Switch, but they won’t be releasing new games for it once the next console is out. As long as NSO is printing money, they will keep it supported.
2032 is definitely way too long in the future. I don’t see them releasing a new console until 2025-2026 at the earliest. Mainly because of COVID and the fact that people are still buying the Switch
The copium here is unbelievably strong. While I beleive that the switch stays strong for a bit longer (we definitely have Metroid and Mario in the pipeline for it), it’s a 6 year old console that sometimes struggles with performance on its own 1st party games. I think that the ship has sailed on a “pro” version. I personally hope that we get a successor that has backwards compatibility for switch titles. I really want this to appear soon.