Seeing conversations like the one copied below and just in general seeing lots of comments about cards being overvalued got me questioning why that seems to be a consistent theme.
https://www.reddit.com/r/PokemonTCG/s/6IXWE1Fx3H
So I just ran some back of the envelope math using bubble mew as it was the first target for the linked thread.
Assumptions from 5 minutes of google searches:
– Cost of a booster pack $4.50
– Cards worth significant value: gardevoir sir – $140, charizard sir – $300, bubble mew – $650
– pull rate for sir is approx 1/58 or specific sir 1/465. (https://share.google/images/DNKy8rkaMeegrrO8W)
So basically if we open 465 packs we should expect to get 1 of every sir, 1 of every shiny rare, and a few of everything else. The 3 big hit SIRs value is approx $1100 together. Let's add $300 to that number to account for everything else, so $1400 in value out expected out of $465 packs.
465 packs @ $4.50 each = $2092.50. A nearly 50% increase over the expected total value of the cards.
So essentially what I'm getting at is that even with packs at MSRP, the value of the cards should be 50% higher than what they are currently listed at…. AND THATS IF THE PACKS WERE AVAILABLE AT MSRP.
I know different sets are going to have different hits and vastly different values…. I put this together in 5 minutes, feel free to tear it apart, but I wouldn't be suprised if a lot of modern cards still have a lot of room to run based on this approach to valuing cards.
by gregdn22