This really made me so frustrated: it took 15 dmax eeveelutions to FINALLY get a jolteon. Is my math correct with this, that the chance of this happening would be (0.6666)15?
Statistically, the 0.66 comes from the chance of receiving either Vaporeon or Flareon, and it took 15 evolutions before getting Jolteon. My calculation says this would be a 0.2% chance of occurring; would this be an insane amount of unluckiness via RNG in this instance? Have any other players encountered disparate odds?
I just wanted to complete the collection challenge, and thought this would be a LOT easier đ
by elijahjames96
25 Comments
Just want to add on, obviously very anecdotal, I’ve evolved 7 eevees so far, 6 vaporion 1 Jolteon. Was chalking it down to insane bad luck, but who knows
Iâve evolved 8 Eevees so far: 6 Jolteon, 2 Vaporeon.
Got it on 9 ridiculous
I evolved three in a row, got Vaporeon, then Jolteon, then Flareon. I thought maybe theyâd made it less random for the collection. I guess I just got really lucky.
Took me 10 times to finally get Flareon, got 3 Jolteon and 6 Vaporeon before I got 1 Flareon.
I got them in 4 evolution. I was very lucky
damn, i thought i had bad rng, took me 11 evos to complete the trio
I got mine Jolteon, Flareon, Vaporeon back to back I got lucky
Got all of them within 3 evolves. And that 3 times in a row. lol.
I got 3 Flareons in a row and then and there decided to give up, not falling for that crap anymore, dont care enough for that medal to keep wasting my max particles on.
while it doesn’t meaningfully change the result, the math geek in me would like to share that your result will be more accurate if you do (2/3)^15 instead of approximating 2/3 as 0.66666 đ
They could easily fix this (and improve the fun for everyone) by simply allowing traded pokemons to complete the collections. Duh!
https://preview.redd.it/cfngb4ybf33g1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7c06b9338ab53e90303ec210c7a511b7265bb3f4
First Try.
I did 6 eevees and got 5 jolteons today lollll
After getting 6 Vaporeons and 2 Jolteons I tried the name trick of Pyro to get Flareon but failed and still got Vaporeon. I 100% know I didn’t use the name trick before. I guess it just doesn’t work.
Took me 8 but i try not to evolve them in a row or i get jolts or vaps in a row
So youâre doing the math for âwhat are the odds of evolving 15 and not getting a Flareonâ, but thatâs not exactly what you want to know here. After all, if youâd done 15 and gotten Flareon and Vaporeon but no Jolteon, youâd be here asking the same thing, right? The thing you really want to know is âprobability of evolving 15 without completing the setâ, which is 3x (0.666âŚ^15) (since there are three ways you could have not completed the set). That works out to 0.7%.
That seems rare, and it is, but you also have to realize there are thousands of ways to slice the data. On research day, I completed 87 tasks and only received one shinyâ thatâs about a 0.1% chance! But on Shadow Kyogre weekend, I did eight raids and got three shiniesâ thatâs just a 0.5% chance! (And again, neither of those measure the true odds, because if Iâd gotten 0 shinies on research day or 4 shinies on shadow raid weekend, Iâd also be asking âwhat were the odds?â, so I should probably include those in the calculations, too.)
For my part, I started this weekend with seven straight Flareons. What were the odds?! (0.05% for Flareon specifically, or 0.1% for seven straight of any of the three.) I then got Vaporeon and Jolteon back-to-back on my next two. What were the odds?! (11% for that specific order, or 22% if we just care about completing the set on our next two evos.)
I can easily think of 1,000 different things I could calculate odds for from the past month aloneâ my shiny Morpeko rate, my shiny dedenne rate, my 3* shadow Latios rate, my wild hundo rate, my research hundo rate, my ratio of Abomosnow tasks to Glalie tasks in field researchâ and for the vast majority of these my outcomes will be in the fat part of the distribution (I got 1 shiny Morpeko in 91 sightings, which at 1 in 64 shiny odds should happen around 34% of the timeâ not surprising at all). But for 1 out of every 1,000 things I look at I should expect to find my luck way out at the 0.1% range.
When I find that one thing out of a thousand, I could ask âman, what were the odds of that?!â and âone in a thousand!â and âpractically guaranteed!â would both be perfectly valid answers, depending on your perspective. In some ways, the most unlikely thing of all would be finding that you didnât have any unlikely things at all.
Took me 17 to get the Jolteon I needed. *shrug* RNG gonna RNG
Humans are bad at understanding odds because we tend to only perceive 1 dataset (ourselves). Technically, the outcome of evolving 15 Eevee is always 0.2%, whether you get 5 of each or some other combination. But because we value certain combinations over others, it appears that the RNG is biased.
Iâm at 12, only flareon and jolteon⌠wtf is this lol
This just reinforces that they need to do something for the original evolutions, it’s absolutely ridiculous.
It took me 11 dmax eeveelutions to get all three lmao
https://preview.redd.it/7v9evjmc9a3g1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3a1970ae59d15f02d47a735d10e2fc3af15961e5
Not willing to burn particle packs for RNG, so I’m not completing this one I guess.
One of my least favourite aspects of this game is that effort does not always get reasonable results.
My eleventh completed the set. In order:
Jolteon, Vaporeon, Jolteon, Vaporeon, Jolteon, Jolteon, Vaporeon, Jolteon, Vaporeon, Jolteon, Flareon
Rubbish system, hope they never do something like this again
inb4 Dynamax Vespiquen
Evolved 5 on Saturday. All Vaporeon.
Evolved 3 on Sunday. All Flareon.
First evolve on Monday. Molten.
There was definitely something fishy going on.