PVP Math geniuses, what’s better for my situation? Lucky or regular trade?

I am going to be receiving this shiny Morpeko soon from my other account, I want to use it in the great league, I’d like to know generally how the odds stack against itself when it comes to getting a good one from a Lucky Trade (best being rank 303 @ 11-15-15) versus just doing a raw roll on it where I know I can get far worse but also better too. I feel like given most Morpekos you fight against are going to be from GBL (10/10/10 floor) there is some value in doing a lucky trade to keep it viable for CMP ties, whereas even if I got a bulkier high rank one he probably still gets squashed by the same charmers or mudslappers etc. please let me know what seems better 🙂