I saw this article and it made think. https://www.vgchartz.com/article/456501/ps5-sales-jump-400-year-on-year-in-europe-in-february-2023-hogwarts-legacy-best-selling-game/ and this one https://www.gamespot.com/articles/nintendo-switch-sales-are-on-the-decline-but-the-console-has-hit-a-new-record/1100-6511233/. The latest number in europe for february is a decline of 28% and for the year all over the world year 2022 a decline of 21%. Switch is predicticted to still sell 18 millions units for the fiscal year though. At what point is it enough for Nintendo? When they sell under 15, 12 or 10 million per year. Or what other factors would contribute to wanting to release a new console. Such as problem to develop for an old an honestly very weak console, a new mario 3d game ready or the will to stop playstation 5s current dominace.
by Bright_Beat_5981
43 Comments
This again?
The last I saw they might announce one at the beginning of 2024, with a release in 2025.
Why are people so eager to replace the Switch? If you want a better console there are plenty of alternatives to Nintendo.
People don’t understand Nintendo’s strategy since the game boy, episode 162626373
I certainly hope that Nintendo releases their next console soon. However, I don’t really agree with the premise that they are competing heavily with Sony and Microsoft. That has become less and less the case over the years, as Nintendo does its consoles on different life cycles than its competitors, and ever since the Wii, its consoles have been “different” as far as the types of games and target markets. Many people will have both a Switch (or the New Switch U DX or whatever it’ll be called) and a PS5. It’s not like Xbox vs Playstation where people tend to have one or the other.
Let me ask my uncle who works for Nintendo. In the meantime I’ll grab my crystal ball.
There was a 4chan post a while ago where the poster revealed the results of the dlc before the direct and said they were also working on a graphics upgrade for scarlet and violet which would be released with a new switch model, so take that with a grain of salt
Hold up calling my uncle who works at Nintendo rn to ask him
To take a wild shot in the dark, they are trying to put it off as much as possible. Since the handheld and console divisions have merged and created a unique niche for them against the competition, it would be foolish to give up on the hybrid console.
This means the logical move for them is to do a “switch 2”. And looking at the history of their home consoles… the straight upgrades hardly do well, the GameCube and Wii U weren’t that successful, the best one was the SNES. Alternatively, we could look at their handheld line and see it worked well twice two times. Although it could be argued that each of them brought something new (colours, widescreen, two screens… 3D). This probably would make things complex and uncertain.
Again though, wild speculation.
They sold over 100millions consoles why wouldn’t it eventually decline? They obviously working on their next console. Comparing to PS5 when it is only 2 years old and most people haven’t got one yet compared to Switch most have it already is bit silly.
It can be fun to speculate, but the only certainty is Nintendo will eventually replace it. I’m happy with the Switch, though I’d like something akin to a PSTV or a build that functions on AC without a battery inserted (to protect the longevity of the platform – batteries tend to go before the rest of the hardware).
The most interesting part to me will be what it ends up being rather than if it’s out in 2024 or 2025, etc. *Best case scenario* is probably something like when we went from the GBA to DS, where it had new games and extra features but the previous generation’s software worked too. *Worst case scenario*, they go all digital (very unlikely) or aren’t able to easily facilitate backwards compatibility and drop support for Switch games then resell us “deluxe edition” ports, which has been undeniably lucrative for them this generation.
> The latest number in europe for february is a decline of 28% and for the year all over the world year 2022 a decline of 21%. Switch is predicticted to still sell 18 millions units for the fiscal year though. At what point is it enough for Nintendo?
I think you’re missing the part where 18 million units in a console’s sixth year is pretty insane and definitely above the norm.
If the Switch drops to say, 9 million units in FY 2023 (a 50% decline) then obviously that’s not going to be good for the longevity of the system. But I also think the Switch’s decline is going to come a lot slower than that, the decline from the 2020 peak to now has already been drastically slower than their past consoles have seen. Zelda ToTK is a FY2023 title that has the potential to move a good deal of hardware all on its own, especially if the ToTK OLED model is actually real (it almost certainly is).
As soon as they can secure enough chips to make 20 million units in a year. That’s been nearly impossible since COVID and I’m 100% certain we’d have seen a new console by now if things hadn’t been so tipsy turvy lately.
There’s some speculation that a new model could come out late in the year. The leak said that it was a beef up rather than a whole new system. If that’s not true, I would bet on an announcement before end of year and a release in spring like we saw with the Switch.
We dont even know what the new console is aside from vaguely switch-like in hardware, or when it will release..
I think if software sales drop significantly, they will move on. This is what ultimately ended the Wii’s lifespan, basically software sales came to a full stop although it was one of the most successful consoles ever
And Microsoft and Nintendo will go hand in hand, and blow Sony out of the water! For a while!
Late 2025 to early 2026
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it, they could milk the Switch for another 10 years easily lol
> Such as problem to develop for an old an honestly very weak console
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Lol, funny because games for that “very weak console” are beating up those 4k 120fps souless games for PS5 and Xbox.
While I wish Nintendo releases it sooner rather than later, I do think that they should take time to knock it out of the park rather than release something half baked just to compete with PS5.
The true competition of a Switch 2 is being able to entice existing Switch owners rather than potential PS5 buyers. A switch 2 that doesn’t have backwards compatibility, a decent battery life is useless to me. It’s not just about how powerful it can be.
I don’t know. I hope soon but the console sells like hotcakes so I’m not sure there’s much incentive to rush a new product out on the market they may require backwards compatibility or any kind of re education to consumers. I’d hope for a Switch 2 but honestly, this many years in, I’m Not sure they know how to boost it’s power and maintain the design of the console.
Either way, I wish it’d happen soon. I don’t touch my Switch often anymore. I will for Zelda or big releases here or there, but it’s really underpowered. Games that shouldn’t chug on it chug. It’s just not as much of a fun experience to me anymore and it’s aged. I love my Switch and the time I’ve had with it, but the fact the OLED didn’t even fix much beyond the screen was upsetting. It sits on my shelf a lot. Hoping soon they just power this thing up a little bit so it can run games more smoothly. It’ll never be as powerful as other consoles on the market, but it’s still essentially Wii U levels all this time later
My uncle works for Nintendo……..and he says tomorrow!
In all seriousness, do you really expect any of us to know? Or, do you just want rumors and “intelligent” guesswork?
They should give the people what they want a switch pro, than move on to the next “gimmick” thing which will probably be some sort of hologram control. Just a wrist strap and that’s the controller.
2 years
I dont care and I hope they continue with the switch for as long as possible to avoid console obsolescence. I dont mind any graphic performance from my switch games. they can fix the joycon quality if they want, but they dont need a whole new product launch for that.
I am still loving my switch that I hardly ever play my xbox x series. Could play another 2 years probably before wanting a newer one.
I can call them and ask if you want
These things take years of planning. If you wait until sales lower to shit, you launch years too late. They probably already planned the launch timing years ago, based on how previous successful platforms have performed.
Around when kids stop asking about it
Probably sometime in 2024. Likely later in the year I’d say
When the flying pig sees it’s shadow.
Is not about sales. Usually cosole producing companies doesn’t win that much with each console (but don’t eat the “we are losing money with each console” narrative)
There are several reasons why you want to change a console:
– Because the competence does so. If another company you want to compete with, is going to releae a better hardware, you need to equal the same hardware so that you can offer the same games.
– Technologies for your hardware are discontinued. That is software or hardware companies stop giving support to the technologies of your current system.
– Related with the previous one, industry standards for tools and for paradigms of development changed, and they aren’t fully compatible with your console.
– New bussines models in videogames appear, and they are not easy to implement in your current hardware.
– You have a revolutionary idea that can break the market (think about gameboy, ds or 3Ds).
Most of this can be summed up into “you make a new hardware system when you think you can get more games that can be top sellers, if you change”. In the end the biggest volume of the bussines if the videogames if your videogames are selling millions, no need to change the system, there you have PS2.
The thing with Nintendo is that they are working differently and I don’t know to wich extend all this points impact their decission making. Since the president already stated that at least 7 years of life for Switch (wich will mean that next year they will be thinking on releasing the new console) but since COVID delayed everything a year, maybe they think about 2025.
We just have to remember we are in a production crysis, with several recessions in economy forced to happen in western countries, furthemore we have high inflation. All of this implies less consumption of this kind of items. Not the best time to release a new system.
We had this topic multiple times.
Nintendo tends to release around 2-4 years after a console started to go down in sales, depends on how fast they go down. I would expect 1-2 years before we get a new console from them.
They’ve already stated they’re going for a 10-year lifespan. The Switch is still going strong in its 6th year. We’re getting Zelda in less than two months and that game alone can carry the Switch through the rest of the year.
Start asking on the 8th year.
I’m guessing a new Switch Pro with backwards compatibility is released in either fall 2023, or in 2024. That way they can continue to sell the older Switch a while longer as well.
Hopefully next year
They need to make a Nintendo Switch 2 and actually call it the Nintendo Switch 2 so people understand this is the successor. If they start trying to Wii U it up with the name, they will fail again.
At some point
I’d be surprised if they don’t start talking about it this year, and I’ll be shocked if it isn’t out sometime next year.
Nintendo is in a unique situation at the moment. They have pretty much all thier eggs in a solely dominated niche. I dont see the the next console to be outside the niche of a hybrid console. That being said nintendo has to be super cautious not to canibilse thier own base, but make a new console appealing to someone outside the market share they already have. That being said, it will take nintendo a while to develop said console, assuming technology has caught up to thier desired innovations. Then they will have to spend a considerable amount to differentiate and make appealing the next console (lest they wish a repeat of the Wii U). Finally if the switch is still selling well with both hardware and software sales continuing without much issue (and no developers are specifically stating publicly that the will not develop games for the switch due to hardware limitation) I imagine nintendo will continue to wait upon release, while refining the next console (and allowing technology to become more accessible) as long as they see needed to ensure revalency and longevity for whatever comes next.
Why should they when the Switch is selling more and more every year and every new game continues to top the industry?
Switch is all time peak gaming. If it was the last console they ever made I’d be happy.
At this point probably not for awhile. They can keep milking the switch dry and it’s still selling like crazy. I feel like we are in the DS era again. Keep making revisions of the console but draw out its lifespan to the max.
Probably sometime after they actually announce a new system. There’s no way for any of us to accurately predict when that will happen beyond guessing.
Most predictions are that it’ll be late this year or early next, but of course there’s a long time from announcement to release, and then another long wait from release to whenever supply reaches the point that regular people can actually buy one without paying scalper prices. As we’ve seen with the PS5, most stuff continues getting released for the old hardware until they’ve released the new hardware AND are able to reasonably meet demand for it.
So it’ll probably be 2025 or maybe even 2026 before things truly “move on,” IMHO.