TLDR: This event is insane for XL candies from transfers and the ticket is well worth it for anyone who has been hoarding legendaries for an event like this (or anyone else who wants to maximise candy)
The way this event is working is that you get 3x the chance of XL candy AND 3x XL candy for transferring pokemon.
Building on previous research – https://web.archive.org/web/20210620222420/https://thesilphroad.com/science/guide-candy-xl-part-3-transferring I have transferred over 2,500 legendaries/mythical/ultra beasts all at level 20 or 25 and the following table is true.
| Pokemon Level | Pre Event XL Transfer Chance | Expected XL Per 100 Transfers | XL Transfer Chance With No Ticket (Double Odds + Double Coin Flips) | Expected XL Per 100 Transfers | XL Transfer Chance With Ticket (Triple Odds + Triple Coin Flips) | Expected XL Per 100 Transfers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-14 | 2.5% | 2.5 | 5% * 2 chance | 10 | 7.5% * 3 chance | 22.5 |
| 15-19 | 12.5% | 12.5 | 25% * 2 chance | 50 | 37.5% * 3 chance | 112.5 |
| 20-22 | 25% | 25 | 50% * 2 chance | 100 | 75% * 3 chance | 225 |
| 23-25 | 40% | 40 | 80% * 2 chance | 160 | 100% * 3 chance | 300 |
| 26-30 | 50% | 50 | 100% * 2 chance | 200 | 100% * 3 chance | 300 |
| 31+ | 75% | 50 | 100% * 2 chance | 200 | 100% * 3 chance | 300 |
What this means in practice
If you solely want to maximise candy and you don't have a ticket then transfer everything level 26 and above (level 25 and below would be best traded on a Sunday with 2 XL per trade). If you have a ticket then transfer everything level 20 and above (level 19 and below would be best traded on a Sunday with 2 XL per trade)
Proof
I have a ticket and transferred 200 Level 20 Deoxys at once which netted 2.22 XL candy per transfer, which is well with a 95% confidence interval of the table above. Though I didn't get a screenshot all 400+ level 25 legendaries that I transferred received 3 XL candy each.
by yabyy14